2012 Academy Awards Predictions

**Argo


*Beasts of the Southern Wild


*Les Miserables


*Life of Pi


*Lincoln


*The Master


*Moonrise Kingdom


*Silver Linings Playbook


As of today, I'm going with my gut and saying that Argo takes home the statuette. I'm predicting 8 this time around, while I could change my mind later on. 2011 was much easier to predict, at this point The Artist was already the heavy favorite to win, but this year is much more up in the air. Lincoln could make a big run, though I doubt that they'd give Spielberg another unless it's his best. Life of Pi looks like it could be Argo's biggest competition, but it, to compare it to last year's crop, looks more like Hugo than The Artist. Silver Linings Playboook will be viewed as more of a comedy, and therefore not even considered. The Master is just way to polarizing to gain much steam, and Les Miserable is up in the air for now, but seems to have the parts to compete, though I highly doubt that they give Tom Hooper the top prize two out of three years. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom are indie flicks and will just have to be happy with the nods. Argo's just doing so well with both critics and audiences that it seems hard to bet against.

**Ben Affleck- Argo


*Ang Lee- Life of Pi


*Steven Spielberg- Lincoln


*Paul Thomas Anderson- The Master


*David O. Russell- Silver Linings Playbook


Rarely do the Oscars ever split the Best Picture and Best Director awards, only four times since 1990, which leads me to believe that Affleck should take this one, though if there was ever a year to split, this would be it. This category is stacked.

**Daniel Day-Lewis- Lincoln


*Denzel Washington- Flight


*Joaquin Phoenix- The Master


*John Hawkes- The Sessions


*Bradley Cooper- Silver Linings Playbook


Another extemely tough category to get a lock on. It appears that Day-Lewis, Washington, Hawkes, and Phoenix are pretty much locks at this point, with Cooper fighting it out with Hugh Jackman for Les Miserable and Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock, but I think enough godwill for Cooper's film as a whole will eek it out. As for a winner, Day-Lewis looks to be in pretty good shape for now, but seeing as he already has two, as does Denzel, Joaquin Phoenix could sneak in and take, though his negative comments about the Oscars could cost him a few votes. Hawkes' film may just be too small to be awarded, but there's always a shot.

**Jennifer Lawrence- Silver Linings Playbook


*Quvenzhané Wallis- Beasts of the Southern Wild


*Helen Mirren- Hitchcock


*Naomi Watts- The Impossible


*Marion Cotillard- Rust and Bone


This years category for females is a bit more complicated than most. There are only a couple of locks, with a couple just complete guesses. Lawrence is the clear frontrunner at this point, having already been nominated just two years ago, and adding in her Hunger Games success. It seems like her year. Cotillard has already one for a foreign film, and is unlikely to get much more than a nod. Mirren's already won within the last six years as well, and being in a film much more driven on performances is going to diminish her chances. Watts is on the ropes at the moment, with Emmanuelle Riva from Amour, Keira Knightley for Anna Karenina, and Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty all nipping at her heels, but being in a film about a tragedy like a tsunami and a film that emphasizes the human spirit certainly will help her cause, the Academy loves that type of stuff. Wallis seems like a long shot, being only 9 years old, but enough love for Beasts could send her into the top five. Just don't count on her winning.

**Leonardo DiCaprio- Django Unchained


*Robert De Niro- Silver Linings Playbook


*Phillip Seymour Hoffman- The Master


*Tommy Lee Jones- Lincoln


*Matthew McConaughey- Magic Mike


It seems like in every acting category, there's at least four locks. I'm currently picking DiCaprio for two reasons, 1.) The last time Quentin Tarantino did a movie,Inglourious Basterds, the villian in that film, Christoph Waltz, won every film award in sight, and 2.) With the exclusion of McConaughey, he is the only one in this category without a trophy, and after being nominated so much, the Oscar's may look at it as a career achievement award. De Niro will just have to settle for his first nod in 21 years, Hoffman could make a run for it, but having already won puts him at a disadvantage to the winless DiCaprio. If Lincoln starts to win big, Jones could take the gold, but like the other three, he's already won. McConaughey is the real wild card of the bunch, but the goodwill towards his reinvigorated career could send him into the top 5, if not, look for Alan Arkin (Argo) or Russell Crowe (Les Miserables) to take his place.

**Anne Hathaway- Les Miserables


*Amy Adams- The Master


*Judi Dench- Skyfall


*Sally Field- Lincoln


*Helen Hunt- The Sessions


From what I've read of the role, if Hathaway puts in the smallest amount of effort, she'll still be the favorite. It's small, but meaty and, of coarse, Oscar-baity. I'm not sure if Helen Hunt is running in the supporting category or lead, but everything I've read says supporting, though even if she were the in the lead category, she'd stil be a lock. Adams sits in the same boat that Leonardo DiCaprio does, nominated several times without winning, but this category is a bit more scattered, so she still could win. Being the lead female in cast made up predominately of men gives Field's a clear path to the ballot, though winning is an entirely different story. Dench is the odd-woman-out here, with her nod a bit more up in the air, though I believe her strong work mixed with the massive success of Skyfall will get her in.

**Paul Thomas Anderson- The Master


*Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola- Moonrise Kingdom


*Matt Damon & John Krasinski- Promised Land


*Michael Haneke- Amour


*Quentin Tarantino- Django Unchained


PT Anderson is in the driver's seat of this category. After five nominations for writing and directing, (if my predictions are correct, that tally will move up to seven), it appears the Academy will finally reward him. His main competition here is Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola's script for Moonrise Kingdom. Anderson's been nominated twice before for his screenplay for The Royal Tennenbaums and directing the animated feature Fantastic Mr. Fox, but this seems to be his first real opportunity to win. While PT Anderson is the favorite, he's taking on a comedy script in the only category that accepts it. Tarantino's Django Unchained has yet to be seen, but if it has any of his trademark dialogue, it's a pretty safe bet at a nomination. Haneke will have to be repaid for being tossed out of the director category. The only film I'm not sure about is Promised Land. The timely subject matter of "frackng" should make for an informative drama, and Matt Damon is no stranger to the screenplay category, but stiff competition from Zero Dark Thirty and Looper could crash the party.

**Chris Terrio- Argo


*Lucy Alibar & Ben Zeitlin- Beasts of the Southern Wild


*Tony Kushner, John Logan & Paul Webb- Lincoln


*David Magee- Life of Pi


*David O. Russell- Silver Linings Playbook


Another highly contested category. If Argo wins both Best Picture and Best Director, then it's highly likely that they'd give them a screenplay win, but it's not a lock. David O. Russell could win his first, but it depends on whether or not the Academy thinks they've nominated him enough to give him one. With it being a more talky movie than expected, Lincoln is a shoe-in for a nod, and if Beasts does in fact make it into the Best Picture category, it would be highly doubtful that they'd forget the script. I've been comparing Life of Pi a lot to Hugo here, so why stop now. Most critics felt that Hugo's script was the most flawed part of the film, yet still managed to make it into the category last year, and that seems to be the case with Pi.

**Roger Deakins- Skyfall


*Danny Cohen- Les Miserables


*Janusz Kaminski- Lincoln


*Claudio Miranda- Life of Pi


*Wally Pfister- The Dark Knight Rises


I believe that ten will be the charm for Roger Deakins for his fantastic work in Skyfall. Granted, these other four will give him a run for his money, especially Life of Pi, but I believe his body of work helps him prevail.

**William Goldenberg- Argo


*Michael Kahn- Lincoln


*Fred Raskin- Django Unchained


*Tim Squyres- Life of Pi


*Dylan Tichenor- Zero Dark Thirty

**Amour (Austria)


*The Intouchables (France)


*Lore (Australia)


*No (Chile)


*A Royal Affair (Denmark)


I really know nothing about this category, so I had to look to other sites to see whats big, though none of it will really matter. The critical outpouring for Amour should lock up the category. The only challenge could be The Intouchables, based solely on it's massive box office worldwide. Even with that, it would still shock me if Amour doesn't win.

**Brave


*Frankenweenie


*ParaNorman


*Rise of the Guardians


*Wreck-It Ralph


Brave appears to be the frontrunner here, simply because it's Pixar doing a movie with anything but talking cars. Personally, I think that Frankenweenie, ParaNorman,and Wreck-It Ralph were all much more entertaining, but without the Pixar pedigree, they don't really have much of a fighting chance. Rise of the Guardians has yet to be released, but if it good reviews and does well at the box office, then DreamWorks may have a shot for the first time in over 10 years.

**Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer- Anna Kareninna


*Hugh Bateup & Uli Hanisch- Cloud Atlas


*Rick Carter, Jim Erickson & Peter T. Frank- Lincoln


*David Gropman & Anna Pinnock- Life of Pi


*Eve Stewart- Les Miserables

**Jacqueline Durran- Anna Kareninna


*Paco Delgado- Les Miserables


*Eiko Ishioka- Mirror Mirror


*Joanna Johnston- Lincoln


*Ann Maskrey & Richard Taylor- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

**"Suddenly" by Hugh Jackman- Les Miserables


*"Skyfall" by Adele- Skyfall


*"Learn Me Right" by Birdie and Mumford & Sons - Brave


*"From Here to the Moon and Back" by Dolly Parton- Joyful Noise


*"Midnight Run" by Willie Nelson- Lawless


I know nothing about how the Academy picks the best song nominees, but this is what I came up with. I've picked Hugh Jackman's song "Suddenly" from Les Miserables to win, simply because it is the only original song from a sprawling musical epic. Seems pretty solid. Adele's "Skyfall" will be it's biggest competition. The other three I have absolutely no idea about, but seem like reasonable assumptions.

**John Williams- Lincoln


*Mychael Danna- Life of Pi


*Alexandre Desplat - Argo


*Reinhold Hell, Johnny Kilmek & Tom Tyker- Cloud Atlas


*Dario Marianelli- Anna Karenina


This categoy has no real frontrunner at the moment, but several leading candidates, and even more potential spoilers. Currently, I'm giving John Williams the edge because, well he's John Williams. His biggest competition at the moment appears to be Dario Marianelli's score for Anna Karenina, both of which are the only two previous winner's in the category. Cloud Atlas is in here as more of my hope, and while I think it may eek it's way in now, I'll probably change my mind for the next predictions. Argo and Life of Pi are both locks given the critical success of the film's overall. Watch out for Howard Shore's The Hobbit, Desplat's own Moonrise Kingdom score, and, if it's eligible, Hans Zimmer's thumping score for The Dark Knight Rises.

**The Dark Knight Rises


*Les Miserable


*Life of Pi


*Lincoln


*Skyfall

**Life of Pi


*The Avengers


*The Dark Knight Rises


*Skyfall


*Zero Dark Thirty

**Cloud Atlas


*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey


*Les Miserables


Cloud Atlas and The Hobbit are locks in this category, and even though I'm currently predicting Atlas to prevail, it's going to be a tight race. As for Les Miserables, it's nothing short of a toss up pick at this point. Movies like Lincoln, Looper, and Prometheus could keep things miserable.

**Life of Pi


*The Avengers


*Cloud Atlas


*The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey


*Prometheus


Being the only BP nominee in the pack, Life of Pi is the heavy favorite in this category, though each movie is worhty of the nod. The Avengers makes it in on one fact, it's one of the biggest movies of all-time. The Hobbit is a legacy in the category, and therefore can't not be nominated. Cloud Atlas was an epic, and Oscar loves epics. Prometheus is the only movie here that's going to have a rough time getting in. While it's visual achievements are undeniable, the film won't get the kind of support that the other four films will, and Flight and The Dark Knight Rises are going to fight to the bitter end.